The Invasion of MOOCs

As it has happened in a succession of industries like music, travel and retailing; the internet is going to  disrupt the higher education market forever. The global market for higher education is estimated at $300 billion with 80 million students and around 3.5 million teaching and support staff. In the words of Clayton Christenssen, this market is  ‘ripe for a disruption’.  

My take in the link: http://www.iamwire.com/2013/10/technology-led-disruption-happen-higher-education/20779

Artificial Life

Dr. Craig Venter, Dr.Hamilton and their team have achieved something which will profoundly alter human life. This is arguably one of the most important milestones ever in human history. They have created a piece of DNA with about 1000 genes with laboratory chemicals. This is artificial, conceived through a computer programme and this organism can replicate on its own.

There is exciting research in biology happening in several other laboratories and this breakthrough will only accelerate the process of creating synthetic living organisms. A day when artificial large animals can be created may not be very far. This also challenges our conventional notions of life and religion.


The experiments on recreating ‘Big Bang’ in Geneva are also likely to unravel the mysteries about the origins of the universe. That will be another giant step for science and make our understanding and interpretation of life more complete.


But the most fascinating thing in this is the fact that Man, a product of evolution, has reached a stage where it is able to understand the complexity behind its own creation and will be soon able to replicate its own evolution in some way !

The Second Half of Life

The excessive length of life is a phenomenon of the last hundred years. In the early twentieth century, the life expectancy of an American was around 45 years. In 2007, it was 78 years. The life expectancy of the average Japanese is 82.6 years. Today, only a handful of African countries beset by poor health services and AIDS have life expectancies of below 50.

This throws up peculiar challenges for human beings. The concept of retirement at 58 was developed when life expectancies were around 65 to 70.Now many people are left with a substantial part of their life after retirement.

Many lose their bearings once they stop working and deteriorate both physically and mentally. Indians turn to spirituality. But this is not the answer.

It was Drucker who explained that after even two decades of doing the same work, many retire on the job,much earlier than the official retirement age. With empty nests and no satisfaction from work they also find their lives meaningless. But there are people who plan their second lives.They are in a minority and will become role-models and leaders.

The second life can be of social entrepreneurship, advisory roles or community service -essentially a passion or purposeful work . But the prerequisite to a second life is starting early and taking the small, initial steps around 35.

Fashion in New India

Fashion, as we know it today, had its origins in the French empire of Louis XIV. In Paris of the seventeenth century, the ladies of Versailles outdid one another in creating and being seen in extraordinary and exclusive clothes and ‘La Mode’ and ‘Couture’ were born. To many it seems frivolous in a developing country, but fashion gives a unique peek into the social trends and the follies or the tastes of the rich.

The Indian fashion scene has changed dramatically. The fashion shows give a good glimpse into what the business is going through and what the trends are. I went to the Delhi fashion week recently and found very interesting contrasts with the fashion events five to ten years back.
The big change is that fashion is more accessible. Earlier, the shows were populated by a westernized audience in their twenties or thirties. Today, the shows attract all age groups reflecting the romance of fashion even with mature age groups.

The second change is in the models. The models earlier were all clones of their western counter parts, white, high cheek boned and skinny. Today, many of them have distinctly Indian facial profiles and dark skin.

The clothes reflect a broader change in the Indian society. The clothes are no more again poor imitation of the dresses by Armani or Gaultier or of the opulent Indian variety (the type worn by Indian royalty). They are a very clever and practical mix of both Indian and international sensibilities. They could be worn on the streets of Manhattan or Colaba. The colours are bright and bold. There are clothes in purple, burgundy and yellow as much as in black and mauve. There is also a courageous experimentation in the fabrics with jute, silk, Lycra, cotton and Nylon aiding a spirit of playfulness and dreaming.

All these changes reflect the increasing maturing and confidence of the Indians. The lack of self-esteem and a certain rootlessness are definitely disappearing. The new young designers are confident in their skin and have settled in a place for themselves and the new India in comfort and in style.

Biology and the 21st century

Suddenly ,Biology is taking centre stage amongst sciences. After Charles Darwin, Physics and Chemistry took over and provided the glamour in sciences.Einstein, Schrodinger, Madame Curie were the stars of the scientific world.

In 1953, Walter Crick and James Watson discovered DNA and that set off a chain of events with unimagined consequences. First the scientists could understand DNA,then they discovered that they could slice off parts of it and attach new parts and then genome was decoded.Over time they also found out that many diseases, physical differences and even behavioral traits can be explained by genetic variations.

Today, we stand on the threshold of the greatest era of biological research. Research into the brain, biotechnology and unraveling the details of human evolution are amongst the most exciting fields in science today.

Countries like the US are aware of this at a political decision a making level and they are taking measures to see that a top class biology Ph.D. earns more than any other professional.

India, as always ,will catch on the revolution when it is a tad too late.

The Future Arrives Faster Than You Think

A friend has commissioned a project on "Futuristic Business Opportunities" with some ISB students and that set me thinking about predictions for the future. It is a difficult terrain and the world's greatest experts have fared badly in it. In 1990, John Naisbitt wrote 'Megatrends' and Alvin Toffler wrote 'Powershift'. In both, India features as a peace-loving, backward, democratic country which buys a lot of arms and has satellites. Neither could predict the arrival of India on the world stage. Both thought Japan will set the fashion and cultural trends of the future. China's emergence is suspected but not the scale of its achievements and growth.

Let us just look back at 1995 in India .Even ten years back, nobody would have thought that India would be an emerging superpower in 2005 . We cannot today manage without a cellphone and e-mail which barely existed then .The aspirational products for the upper-middle class were microwave ovens,compact music systems , 1000 cc cars and holidays in Bangkok. Today the aspirational lifesyle elements are Plasma TVs , 2.5 lit SUVs and holidays in Serengiti .The hottest job sectors were then in consumer goods sector. Today, it is sort of passe. Ten years back,the senior executives earned about Rs 8 to 10 lacs in a year. Today it has reached Rs 35 to Rs 50 lacs . There were no malls or multiplexes in the country and today any self-respecting one million population town has malls. There were no Indian CEOs of global companies or widely- known management gurus .The last decade has thrown up Rajat Gupta,Rana Talwar,Prahalad,Mohan Sawhney,Indra Nooyi and Vindi Banga etc. to the top echelons of corporate success.

The interesting thing about these movements is that practically none of the mainstream media was able to either spot or predict these changes. So the only possibility of predicting even for ten years is possibly to go through expert opinions in specialised journals or research papers . One megatrend in India has been that the it has closed the gap with the rest of the world in lifestyles. But in cultural trends it has Indianised itself more in line with many countries in the world. So today Bollywood movies excite the passions of even the snootiest in our cities. Hindi pop music has become acceptable in all circles.


Going by the present trends and overall global directions ; it seems positive that India, China, South Africa and Russia will start playing important roles in the world displacing France, Germany and Britain . The upper-middle class ,with the greater purchasing power of the rupee,will have actually a better lifestyle than westerners including having customised nature or heritage holidays and premium cars like Porsche 911 or Audi R8. The lower-middle class then will have a lifestyle which the middle class has now .

India will be amongst the principal players in auto componenets, healthcare and tourism besides IT . We will also see a dominant presence of Indians in Wall Street and international media houses in the next five years .

But certain things may not change - like the Congress and BJP squabbling over Ayodhya, India being at 117 in the FIFA rankings or Rekha dancing to a sensuous number .